Last week I posted my threat level assessment of the current Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. At that time I was holding to a 3 on a scale of 1-10. I’m now at a 3.5, which means all the same preparatory work, but it’s now time to have a conversation with CLOSE friends and family (your loser 3rd cousin doesn’t need to know you have extra food in the house.)

What will you be talking about? Basic “what if” scenarios.

What if we can’t get Dad’s medication?
What if the schools close?
What if we get stuck away from home somewhere?
What if one, or more, family members is quarantined?
What if half of the staff no longer show up for work?

Plans need to be made now for disruptions.

My best guess is that schools will be the first things shut down in the US (locally or nationally.) In our lawsuit-happy society, school administrators will be the first ones to blink when there is even a hint of contagion. Kids being told to stay home will be the basic “canary in the coal mine.” And that goes for colleges, as well. When students are suddenly being told to go home, or stay in their dorms, or sporting events are being canceled, take it as a sign. Have a plan for child care while you’re still going to work.

                                                                               The shelves are full…for now.

This is an incredibly difficult event to assess. No one is presenting factual numbers on infection, death, incubation, spread, testing – NONE. Why? Because, a) no one really knows, and b) no one wants to start a panic.

So, we surfs have only one way to assess the situation, and that’s through the actions we’re seeing. I hear lots of talking heads and commentators dismissing the entire affair because “the flu kills more people every year than this has.” Well. I’ve personally never been to the funeral of a person who died from the flu. And, most people I know will muscle through a flu before they will go to a doctor. Many will even try to work through it –  the “Tylenol Cold & Flu because I have bills to pay” routine. But, even those who go to the doctor would not be greeted by people in HAZMAT SUITS spraying them with disinfectant. That is exactly how the “authorities” are treating this – with suits, respirators, extreme disinfection procedures, and quarantines.  Borders are being closed, factories are being shut down, trade is slowing, flights are being canceled, and markets are plummeting.  Towns in Italy have been closed off, and police and military equipped with long guns have been placed at road blocks.

That doesn’t sound like “the flu” to me.

Here’s the CDC Situation Summery updated today.

Here’s Dr. John Campbell’s update from yesterday morning:

Maybe it’s all one big overreaction – time will tell. However, it is certainly better to be ahead of something like this than behind. How much ahead is up to you.

Time is ticking.

PS – Are you wishing you’d taken that training class you keep putting off, yet?